By Ray Johnson

Episode 1 – The IPCC

Welcome to the first of a series of informative articles on Climate Change. The aim is to provide easy to read explainers of climate change science, its organisations, processes, issues and implications. We start with a primer on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) and the framework for governments to act on IPCC advice.  

The IPCC is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established the IPCC in 1988. Its mission was to “prepare a comprehensive review and recommendations with respect to: the state of knowledge of the science of climate change; the social and economic impact of climate change, and potential response strategies and elements for inclusion in a possible future international convention on climate.” Over time the IPCC core mandate has continued, the science has evolved, and the confidence in key scientific findings has increased to the highest levels.

The IPCC has so far produced six assessments and a range of reports and papers. These assessments underpinned the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC - 1994), the Kyoto Protocol (1997), and the Paris Agreement (2016). The Paris Agreement’s goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels.” The Sixth Assessment was finalised in March 2023 and the Seventh Assessment is due late 2029.

Each Assessment consists of three Working Group reports and a Synthesis Report. The Sixth Assessment factsheet (8 pages) demonstrates the immense effort and detail that goes into each assessment cycle. Across the three working group reports there were 782 authors and editors, nearly 200,000 comments by experts and governments, and over 66,000 research citations.  

What is the impact of all this advice? The UNFCCC has been ratified by 198 countries, virtually universal support. The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty, adopted by 196 parties. The parties of the Framework Convention come together to form the Conference of the Parties (COP), the ‘supreme’ decision-making body of the Convention. The COP meets regularly, typically annually, and the COP Presidency rotates among the five recognised UN regions - Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Central and Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Others.  

Brazil hosts COP30, the next meeting, in November this year (2025). This meeting is vitally important as it is here that nations need to commit to action to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In a recent speech in Brazil, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said “Because these national plans are among the most important policy documents governments will produce this century, their quality should be the paramount consideration.” The original deadline for national plans was 10 February but Secretary Stiell indicated September was a hard deadline.

Climate Action Tracker paints a grim picture: “Only six of the [42] countries the Climate Action Tracker analyses have submitted their new 2035 climate targets in time for the Paris Agreement's 10 February 2025 deadline, and only one — the UK — is proposing actions at home that are 1.5 degree C-aligned.” One of the six was the USA. On 20 January 2025 President Trump signed an Executive Order withdrawing the USA “from any agreement, pact, accord, or similar commitment made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.”  

In Australia Sky News reports: “Both major parties avoid 2035 Paris Accord [Agreement] climate commitments ahead of federal election”.  

The science, advice and governance frameworks are in place. The need is political will. Time is running out.