By Jacqueline Forst

Consumer and Carer Advocate, Illawarra Shoalhaven Local Health District.

The Bugle is pleased to announce that Jacqueline Forst will be contributing a series of articles focusing on aged care issues that matter to the Kiama community.

Jacqueline brings extensive experience as a Consumer and Carer Advocate with the Illawarra Shoalhaven Local Health District and Carers NSW.

With postgraduate qualifications in Commerce and Social Work, and a background in human services design, she is deeply committed to social equity and community-led innovation.

Aged care is heading towards a crisis point.

More Australians are living longer, but too many are spending those extra years in poor health.

This graphic shows the projected increase in Kiama LGA residents aged 65 and over - from 4,950 in 2021 to 8,550 by 2036. This represents a 32% increase and highlights the growing need for age-friendly services and planning in the region. ​

As our population ages, demand for care is soaring, costs are climbing, and both government and providers are under pressure to keep up.

Australia’s population is ageing at an unprecedented rate. Over the next 40 years, the number of people over 85 is expected to triple.

Yet our health span lags 12 years behind our lifespan, meaning many Australians spend their later years with limited mobility and high care needs.

This shift is making aged care more complex and costly to manage.

In the Illawarra-Shoalhaven region, the effects are already being felt.

Former Warrigal CEO Mark Sewell confirmed that 500 aged care beds have closed over the past decade. ISLHD CEO Margot Mains estimates the region is now short 1,025 beds as of March 2025.

At the same time, the cost of care has climbed significantly, with the Productivity Commission reporting that average aged care bed-day costs have risen from $71,420 in 2014 to $85,891 in 2022–23 (adjusted for inflation).

In response, the federal government passed the Aged Care Bill in November 2024, with the new Aged Care Act set to take effect on 1 July 2025.

It introduces reforms aimed at stabilising the sector, recognising that further closures would have dire consequences.

These include increased funding, higher wages for care workers, expanded access to nursing, and more direct care hours.

Local governments like Kiama Council have struggled to navigate the evolving aged care environment.

Despite the good intentions behind Blue Haven Bonaira, the council underestimated the financial and structural shifts that have reshaped the industry.

Meanwhile, larger not-for-profit providers were consolidating, reducing risks, and stepping away from unprofitable ventures.

Under the new legislation, around half of new aged care residents will face higher costs.

While hardship provisions remain, those with fewer resources may need to travel further to find suitable care.

These pressures are particularly urgent for Kiama. According to the 2021 Census, our median age is 48, ten years older than the national median.

By 2036, the number of Kiama residents aged 65 and over is projected to grow from 4,950 to 8,550. A 32% increase. Planning for this now is essential.

The path forward will require collaboration across all levels - government, providers, community leaders, and residents.

Together, we must find sustainable solutions that ensure older Australians.