Opinion:

In 1988 the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program established the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For over three decades IPCC Assessments have been saying the main drivers of climate change are population growth and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth.In 2007 the science reached ‘unequivocal’ status. 

In 2007 both major Australian political parties (ALP and LNP) went to the federal election with climate-change policies based on a price mechanism. Most economists and policy experts agree that a price mechanism is the most efficient and effective way to drive the massive changes required across free-market world economies to combat climate change. Following political argy bargy on both sides of Australian politics, it took until 1 July 2012 to legislate and establish a carbon-price mechanism on selected carbon emissions. The scheme was short-lived, lasting until July 2014 when the then LNP government repealed the enabling legislation. Neither the ALP nor LNP have canvassed an economy-wide price mechanism since.

Flash forward a decade to 2024. The damaging impacts of climate change are obvious to all except the most ardent denialists. Barely a month goes by without a major credible scientific report showing the planet is veering towards the worst of the IPCC range of projections. The 1.5 degree target is now history with risk well on the way to ‘existential’ status. Australia is the world’s third-largest fossil-fuel exporter. Australians have the highest CO2 emissions per capita of the ‘developed’ nations. Our federal government is fixated on both massive population growth and absolute economic growth, including expanding coal and gas exports. 

Of the developed nations our ecological footprint per capita is among the highest (worst) and projected to stay that way for the next 30 years. Australia is the only developed country on the global list of deforestation hotspots, first in the world for mammal extinction, and second for biodiversity loss. The major drivers are the usual suspects – population and economic growths. The next Australia State of the Environment report is scheduled for 2026 and the NSW equivalent is due this year.

Think global, act local and zoom in on the recent Kiama local government election. Not one candidate made the link between population and economic growths and climate change. Apart from fiscal prudence and collegiality, the dominant themes were economic growth and the embrace of population growth targets – targets imposed by a compliant state government reacting to a federal government high-population-growth policy not mentioned at the last federal election. Any federal opposition was and is at the margins, typically ignoring demand management and focusing on the supply side [e.g the housing debate].The Greens stopped talking about population limits years ago. Yet this high-population growth policy is opposed by a clear majority of Australians, as shown in every reputable robust opinion poll with a neutral question on population growth. Go figure.

Many Kiama LGA candidates were/are compromised by political party membership [whether explicitly stated or not] and are conflicted by the federal and state policies of their party. Take your pick: coal, gas, nuclear, record population growth, addiction to GDP growth, all solutions sourced from the supply side … on the road to nowhere but short-term self-interest. Others are members of pro-growth organisations or groups.Many claimed “sustainable environment” without further detail or explaining how this was possible within the confines of their party’s policies or organisation’s objectives. 

With the composition of the new Council known, Council will resume finalising its 20 year Kiama Growth and Housing Strategy based on “expected” growth to “over 31,000 people by 2044 (or by 33%), with a projected 3,456 new dwellings required (REMPLAN, 2023) to meet current projected demand.” There’s no serious engagement with intergenerational equity or the type of environment being passed on to the children and grandchildren who are too young to vote.