The release today of the Climate Council report on Australia’s most climate-vulnerable places highlights the bushfire risk in the Kiama area, even under the optimistic low emission scenario of a global average temperature rise of 1.8C by 2100.

In particular, in Foxground, 54% of properties are deemed to be at high risk (and another 31% at medium risk) in 2030 even under the low emission scenario. On Saddleback Mountain, 41% of properties are deemed high risk and 38% medium risk.

In Rose Valley, 39% of properties are deemed to be at risk, with only one at high risk.

At Jerrara, 38.6% of properties are at medium risk, and in Jamberoo 15.5% of properties are at risk (1% at high risk). At Curramore, 25.5% of properties are at medium risk.

20% of Gerroa properties are also at medium risk from bushfires in 2030.

Perhaps surprisingly, coastal inundation concerns do not kick in until 2100 in a high emissions scenario (a 4.4C global average temperature rise by 2100). In that scenario, 3.8% of properties at Werri Beach and 2.5% of properties at Gerroa will be at high risk.

In Gilmore as a whole, under the low emissions scenario, 31.9% of properties are at high to medium risk of river and surface water flooding or bushfire.

The Climate Council’s report raises concerns that many properties will be uninsurable and calls for urgent action to reduce emissions this decade to avoid the situation deteriorating further.

Across all electorates in Australia, the report found 3.6% of properties (520,944) or one in every 25 properties will be uninsurable by 2030. In addition, one in 10 (9%) of properties will reach the ‘medium risk’ classification by 2030, with annual average damage costs equalling 0.2% or more of the property replacement cost. 

Nicki Hutley, Climate Councillor, leading economist and former Partner at Deloitte Access Economics says, “It is clear that Australia is fast becoming an uninsurable nation. Skyrocketing costs or flat out insurance ineligibility are becoming more and more widespread under climate change. 

“As an economist, I find these new numbers shocking and deeply concerning. I urge all Australians to use this tool to understand the risk they and their communities face as we progress through this critical make or break climate decade. This map makes it clear that the emissions pathway the next federal government sets us on will play a critical role in determining the insurability and future prosperity of entire communities and regions across the country.” 

According to the Climate Council, an independent thinktank, “To limit temperature rise to well below 2°C, global emissions need to be halved by 2030, and there is a need to get to net zero by 2040 at the latest.

"Australia, amongst other countries, must urgently escalate efforts to reduce emissions before the end of this decade. Australia should aim higher than the global average and adopt a target of 75% emissions reductions by 2030

reaching net zero by 2035, given its distinct advantages and the many social benefits and economic opportunities associated with emissions reductions.”

The interactive map allows you to you look at the risk over various timeframes and emission scenarios: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/climate-risk-map/